I was discussing with a close friend a couple of scenarios relating to the near future of British politics. I thought that they might be interesting enough to share with my friends and colleagues here on this blog.

Thoughts, comments and (of course) alternative scenarios are welcome!

Scenario 1 - "Et tu, Brute?"

Jack Straw will leads a deputation to Gordon Brown on Friday/Monday (or sooner) telling him that for the good of the party etc. he'd better be off sodding off.

Then:

* Monday/Tuesday - Brown resigns as Leader of the Labour party, carrying on as a caretaker PM;
* August - Labour special conference to elect new leader (Johnson; Harperson and Balls standing); Alan Johnson elected;
* Election called in October/November;
* Hung parliament - Labour (just) largest party (thanks to the "Johnson Jump" (similar to the "Brown Bounce"));
* Johnson with support of Lib-Dems form majority government with Royal Commission on Electoral Reform and referendum on the findings;
* Cameron continues as Tory leader;
* May 2013 Referendum rejects findings of the Royal Commission on Electoral Reform;
* Coalition collapses;
* Elections called for October 2013;
* Tories win majority of 5;
* Cameron PM; Lord Blair of Sedgefield appointed advisor to the government;
* Clegg resigns; Johnson resigns (Milliband becomes leader; Balls as Shadow Chancellor); Lib-Dems merge into New Labour; Old Labour splits off and is led by Harperson.

Scenario 2 - Reshuffle the deck; then go for broke.

Brown reshuffles and heads of calls for his head.

* Monday/Tuesday - Brown reshuffles; Balls Chancellor; Mandleson FO; Darling Home Office; Lord (George) Robertson [remember him?] Defence;
* July/August warm and sunny - some encouraging economic news;
* September - more encouraging economic news;
* Election called in October/November;
* Hung parliament - Tories largest party;
* Brown with support of Lib-Dems form government with promise of Royal Commission on Electoral Reform and referendum on the findings (Balls FO; Clegg Chancellor; Vince Cable elected Speaker);
* Cameron continues as Tory leader;
* May 2013 Referendum rejects findings of the Royal Commission on Electoral Reform;
* July 2013 State funeral for Margaret Thatcher causes ripples in the coalition
* August 2013 Coalition collapses;
* Elections called for October 2013;
* Tories win majority of 150; Lib-Dems reduced to 14 MPs; Labour wiped out in the south;
* Cameron PM; Lord Blair of Sedgefield appointed advisor to the government; Ken Clarke to FO; negotiations for euro accession commenced;
* Brown resigns; Clegg resigns (after losing seat);
* New Labour and Lib-Dems merge forming "Social Democratic and Liberal Party" (Milburn and Susan Kramer joint leaders);
* Labour elects Ed Milliband as leader; David Milliband as Deputy Leader;
* June 2014 UK referendum votes in favour of adoption of euro;
* January 2017 becomes euro official currency of UK;
* May 2017 general election;
* Tories win majority of 140; SDLP returned with 35 MPs; Labour Party in opposition led by Ed Milliband/David Milliband take seats from SDLP.